Men’s
qualification: In the
olympic ranking there are still 11 cards to take. At the original 7, other
4 cards (host card and the 3 of the world championships podium) have been added.
There are
still 2 wild cards and 3 cards at the World championship 2008.
It ‘s
very difficult that these 3 cards will be taken by different athletes from
the qualified ones or by them who are in good ranking position. So we can
suppose 14 cards in the olympic ranking.
According
to our study and our simulations about other years, we are sure the
necessary ranking points for taking olympic pass will be not more of 127.
It will
probably be 123 or less. So it’s
difficult that less than 30 points in one competition or less than 70 in
two competitions could be useful.
Looking
at the actual olympic ranking with more than 30 points (one comp.)
or 70 (for two comp.) we can find the following situation:
5 cards
of 14 are already sure:
-Walther
173 points and Gebhard 153pt for Germany, Capalini (Cze)147pt, Benedetti
(Ita)130pt and Meliakh (Blr)123pt.
Other 3
are almost sure with athletes who have more than 75 points with two
competitions:
-Berrou
(Fra)100pt, Lapo 82pt (or Prokopenko 69pt) for Belorus and Cherkovskis (Lat)
79pt.
For the
remaining 6 cards the following athletes are fighting:
-Bowsher (Usa) 76pt (2 comp); -one of
these Poland athletes: Majewski 73pt(2 comp), Stefanek 75pt(2 comp), Kacer
39pt(1 comp) e Galecky 36pt(1 comp);
-Garcia 48pt and Soto 42pt from Mexico;
-Santos (Bra) 40pt;
-Papadopolo (Gua) 39pt;
-one of
these Italian: Valentini 38pt, Simonetti 37pt, Pecci 34pt and Giancamilli
31pt.;
-Sika (Lat)
with 38pt;
-Guitian (Pan) 37pt;
-Brandt (Swe)
and Tisi (Chi) with 36pt.;
-one of
these Ukrainian: Tymoshenko 35pt, Borkin 33pt and Kukshin 30pt.
-Maynard (Can) 35pt;
-Abreu (Dom) 34pt;
-Daniel (Aut) with 32pt.
-Floros (Gre)
and Woodbridge (Gbr) with 31pt.
-El
Geziry (Egy) with 31pt or one other Egyptian athlete between Tadros and
Hefny, without useful points.
-Astier
(Fra) with 30pt or another French athlete between Pla o Viala, without
useful points.
-there
are also somebody else, without useful points, like Lopez (Spa), Hantov (Bul)
or an unknown outsider.
Women’s
qualification: in the
olimpic ranking there are now 10 cards, 7 originals and 3 added (1 host
card, gold medal of the final World Cup and the silver one of the World
Championships). If we add the 3 cards of the World championships 2008, we
have still 13 cards. We think
that in the women qualification 110 points will be enough for taking the
pass for Bejing.
Let see
the 13 hypothetical cards: -9 are already sure:
Samusevich
(Blr) with 152pt, Rublevska (Lat) with 149, Arkhipenka 137pt or
Mazurkevich 114pt for Belorus, Mouratova (Rus) 123pt, Mathe (Hun) 119pt
and Taormina (Usa) 115pt.
With only
two good results: one between Maloszyc 87pt, Dziadura 79pt and Boenisz
77pt for Poland, Grolichova (Cze) 90pt and Grant (Can) with 78pt.
-other 2 cards are probably for:
Trautmann
(Ger) 67pt and Tereshuk (Ukr) 65pt with two results.
Sanchez (Mex) 44pt, Rodriguez (Cub), Lellys (Bra) 40pt, Rimsaite (Ltu)
34pt
-For the
last two cards are now in pole position the following athletes:
Sanchez (Mex) 44pt, Rodriguez (Cub) 42pt, Lellys (Bra) 40pt, Rimsaite (Ltu)
34pt,
Fakhry (Egy) 30pt.
Not many
other athletes can fight for these cards, maybe Partics (Gre), Nunes
(Por), Triguel (Fra) or some outsider.
You can
read the olympic ranking, olympic qualificated list and olimpic criteria,
in the website area “Bejing 2008”.